La Niña Strengthening — Winter Outlook Spells Trouble for Tight Inventories

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects a 60% probability of above-average heating degree days (HDDs) across northern tier states this winter. The La Niña ENSO index has hit −1.2 and is projected to deepen to −1.5 by October — a historical correlation with 8-12% above-normal HDDs in the heaviest propane markets.